Troubles in Tunisia - could it happen in Egypt?

[jewel]

In view of the recent youth unemployment demonstrations in Egypt, and the current trouble in Tunisia, will this affect other arab countries in North Africa? Also is it a result - directly or indirectly of the "wikileaks"after leaked cables portray the president and family as a "mafia" elite running the economy.

Listening to discussions of the situaton it appears many of the problems are one and the same, and it may well be applied to other countries in the region, namely Egypt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... untry.html

[Horus]

I think that what it does prove is that even a regime that was all controlling and powerful can be very quickly toppled once the population gets behind a serious protest.

[Morgita]

I certainly don't think we can lay this at the door of Wikileaks. Diplomatic gossip painting unflattering portraits of a country's leadership could be applied to any country. They didn't spare the British Royals either as far as I can remember! I'm all for looking for simple answers but that's just too simples.

[BillH]

Wikileaks hasn't revealed anything THAT damaging, I have seen things on Youtube well before these so called "great revelations"..personally I think WIKI is all another big false flag to help remove more of our freedom, lets wait and see.

Yes, if only humans realised that as a collective they can stand up againt Authority AND WIN.. We are many, they are few.

I would say the Tunisians are ahead of the game..

Trouble in Egypt ? Quite possibly, IF the American dollars stop rolling in, or the looming problem's in the Sudan or Palestine or Iran don't kick off first.. then there's the question of Mubarack's successor when he kicks the bucket..
I think we will see any problems in Egypt coming a long time before the problems start. Egypt has one major ally. Tourism..

[jewel]

Egypt has one major ally. Tourism..

And so did Tunisia ........not any more

It could well be a trigger for further turmoil across the region.....the problems are common -rising unemployment, rigid autocratic government, corruption ,rising prices ,police brutality etc........

so its the end for the once powerful leader after 23 years known for his ruthless methods, fuel and bread prices have been rising for some while, last week in Algeria it was over oil and rice, and today Jordan was having demonstrations over rising prices.

But there is more -much more to the phenomonem than that
The oligargic governments in these countries are a problem and one wonders if they will hold on much longer......the domino effect
(think Poland 1989 )

[BillH]

I agree, like I said, the Tunisian's are ahead of the Game.

It's happening in Europe too, Greece especially. One politician was beaten up in the streets over the austerity measures out there.. Nice..

[Horus]

As they say, "You can fool some of the people, some of the time" but .........

[Glyphdoctor]

Trouble in Egypt ? Quite possibly, IF the American dollars stop rolling in, or the looming problem's in the Sudan or Palestine or Iran don't kick off first.. then there's the question of Mubarack's successor when he kicks the bucket..
I think we will see any problems in Egypt coming a long time before the problems start. Egypt has one major ally. Tourism..

I wouldn't call it trouble. I would call it a people's revolution. And from what I can see, expect to see at least the beginning of the end here in Egypt before the month is over. There has been a big shift in attitudes among Egyptians since New Year's and Tunisia has only accelerated that exponentially.

Think November 9, 1989 and what happened quite quickly after that. January 14 will likely go down in history in a similar fashion.

[Horus]

Egypt is being cited by news pundits on Western news media as the next potential domino to fall, we live in interesting times.

[BillH]

I agree with Glyph' on that.

Although there had been a big call for the wall to come down throughout Europe and what with Glastnost in Russia, etc the time was right.

With regard to North Africa, quite clearly the "friendly" countries have been bought out with American dollars, but given the situation in America, I can see those dollars are going to stop rolling in as the US unemployment rises towards 20% and the economy hits the second dip, which it will do.
Because the "Quantitive Easing" has merely put money into the pockets of the rich again, and once they have spent all that, ( which they are doing if you look at which type of products are selling well, and which ones are not) then that will be it for America.
The analargy here is a bit like a broken water main at the water works. Those by the water works have an excess of water, while those at the end of the line have little or nothing. That's all the QE is achieving.

Egypt is clearly going to face some form of revolution, as the price of wheat rises and wages do not. Bad decisions by the government as regarding having the farmers grow more profitable crops for export, rather than looking to feed themselves first, because the countries that Egypt can buy wheat from have all suffered either droughts or floods this year, and these countries most probably will not be exporting grain !
Also the Egyptian banks have not been towing the line, taking advantage of low interest rates being offered to savers in the rest of the world, they have been offering excellent rates and that has seriously annoyed the world bank who will now punish Egypt, and ultimately this means that the people will be punished.

The only thing that is preventing a revolution right now is the lack of someone to stand up and say "follow me, I will put this right" and have a set of plausible plans to do so.

If this turns into a religious revolution then it is possible that the Muslim Brotherhood may well become more vocal and gather momentum very quickly.

Once the people have no bread at the table, then the problems will begin.. That day is not too far away.

Expect to see scenes similar to Greece in the summer of last year, where the Tourist attractions will be affected.

Times they are changing, throughout the world.
who's to blame ? the root of all evil..
We have been living in a false economy for decades, now the house of cards is falling down.
It was always going to happen, and I am amazed that it didn't happen sooner.

[jewel]

Agree Bill .....a new world order will be seen and the end of life as we know it, as the earths resources have been decimated and overpopulation has created the planet to become imbalanced, this is just the start of the new paragdim as discussed by Kuhne, it was inevitable.

I think the riots etc we are seeing in North Africa is more about the suppression by outdated rulers and inflexible government than food......

"A cheap holiday in other peoples misery" from holidays in the sun by The Sex Pistols.....mmmmmm

Sam Cooks song maybe seems appropriate too:

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[LivinginLuxor]

"t could well be a trigger for further turmoil across the region.....the problems are common -rising unemployment, rigid autocratic government, corruption ,rising prices ,police brutality etc........" Strange that, Jewel could be almost talking about modern day Coalition Britain! All of her symptoms are present in Britain today. So, be prepared for mass demonstrations and violence in the next few months.

[BillH]

"t could well be a trigger for further turmoil across the region.....the problems are common -rising unemployment, rigid autocratic government, corruption ,rising prices ,police brutality etc........" Strange that, Jewel could be almost talking about modern day Coalition Britain! All of her symptoms are present in Britain today. So, be prepared for mass demonstrations and violence in the next few months.

It will happen, that's for certain. The Irish will kick it off I think.
The problem with these protests is that I know that a certain hooligan element is stategically placed with the ranks of the protestors and then let the MSM has a field day on the violence for weeks to come. thus diverting the attention away from the cause and reason for the protest, and turning the sheep against the idea of protesting.

[jewel]

Hardly LIL!! I think that our "soft" regime here need to get tougher!! (Before we get lots more asylum seekers heading here from NA )

When I lived in NA I was staggered by the levels of corruption and tyranny in all levels of life there, and the attitude of the males is medieval. There is deprivatioon everywhere, and not just of the material kind.

In fact it makes you appreciate living here in Blighty - as those tourists returning from Tunisia will tell you.

[Horus]

So now we have a man who sets himself on fire outside the parliament building in Cairo, a similar incident triggered the protests in Tunisia, could this be the spark everyone is waiting for?

[FABlux]

Hopefully not, have just seen it on the news & the Cairo correpondent says there has not been any reection other than a facebook page calling for protest action in 10 days time.

[Glyphdoctor]

Hopefully?

[JOJO]

So now we have a man who sets himself on fire outside the parliament building in Cairo, a similar incident triggered the protests in Tunisia, could this be the spark everyone is waiting for?

Really, I've not seen anything on the main news here!

[BillH]

Me Neither JOJO. MSM Playing it's part..

2 Western Friendly North African Countries already revolted.

If Egypt erupts, don't expect the dust to settle in less than 2 years.
Egypt has never properly recovered from Hatshetsupt's back in '97 anyway, due to a certain nation who's populous holidayed in vast numbers and are too scared to come back.

I believe that the Egyptian Government is not so stupid as to not use subsidies to quieten things down a bit, they simply cannot afford the downtime of the tourism trade, so Bread, wheat and fuel subsidies will have to come, and that will delay the inevitable for a while.

Once Tunisia has itself sorted out, the Tourist Trade, (although considerably less than that of Egypt), should recover in about 3 months time, assuming that America are happy with the leadership and don't start calling them terrorists.. Who put America in charge of the world anyway ?.. Arrogant tossers.

Still, The higher they climb.....

[LivinginLuxor]

But bread, wheat and fuel are subsidised heavily here in Egypt - or do you mean greater subsidies?

And as for Tunisia:-

"Not even the continuing presence of tanks and tear gas could prevent Tunisia's British spin doctors from trying to sell the nation as an ideal holiday destination today. The allure of golden Mediterranean beaches, thalassotherapy resorts and historic ruins topped the agenda of the collapsed government's London PR executives who seemed to spot an opportunity amid the civil unrest and violence.

"It is outstanding value, it is short to medium haul and it has what we call the 'four pillars of tourism': history and archeology, spas, beaches and the Sahara," said James Brooke, managing director of Rooster, a PR agency that works for Tunisia's national tourist board"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ja ... estination