Egypt4u

So it's a firm(ish) victory for the MB presidential candidate but has anyone on here got any prognostications or intuitions on which way Egypt will go now? What will ultimately be the fate of the ex-pat community, do you think? Will the Muslim Brotherhood allow Egypt to become freer or do you think Egypt will become more like Saudi and the Emirates in its religious laws? Answers on a postage stamp to:...........................

Going to be hard to say how things play out. Am kinda thinking that nothing much will happen fast as abrupt change isn't usually taken as well as gradual change. Am kinda thinking the MB will play it low and slow and gradually gain power and get people positioned and placed and then when they have a 'well oiled machine running smooth' they'll make changes. Hard to say it the MB will turn Egypt into Saudi - maybe, maybe not. Have a thought that whatever plays out and happens in the future will not bode well for any ex-pats. Highly doubt the MB will really care if they have 'needs' or if special considerations have been put in place for them in the past.

Well I would reckon that regardless of what they may say publicly, quite a few expats will be very unnerved by this result. Maybe not immediately, but there will be many changes to come and some of those will affect them directly. In the short term I would say that the MB will try to be all things to all men and avoid rocking the boat too much so as not to upset the military or the people who did not vote for them and those that fear the rise of an Islamic state. Once they have settled in and maybe made a few improvements they will gain in confidence, overseas aid will have been given and everyone will start to think all is well with the world. There will be some improvement in tourism, but not enough as people wait to see the outcome, a distancing from Israel and more open support for the Palestinians will also raise tensions in the area. A few more radical types will be pressing for changes, so alcohol consumption and morals will come under more scrutiny thus further affecting tourism and with it the lifestyle of some expats both male and female. I can see this resulting in a more conservative Egypt with just a nod towards tourism with sun bathing and drinking only allowed in hotels and resorts such as the Red Sea area. If they do get re-elected and gain a larger share of the popular vote then they will gain still more control and then even the military will not dare oppose them as they and their supporters could make the country un-governable. The final scenario is the rise of the mullahs and once they are in the driving seat there is no turning back, think Iran.

OK granted all this may not happen for a few years, but the die has now been cast and Egypt is either on the way to an Islamic revolution or another civil one, either way it does not bode well for anyone living there in the longer term. I suspect that we will see many names slowly slipping back to the UK and elsewhere or at least hedging their options in case the worse happens. Some people will either have no option but to stay as they have burnt their bridges both culturally and financially and literally have nowhere else to go, the clever ones will have seen it coming.

As a footnote, I lived for many years in Africa and saw several examples of expats fleeing previously safe havens. All were considered to be stable until something changed overnight, in Uganda’s case it was Edi Amin coming to power and 30,000 Indians had to leave the country taking nothing with them. Penniless and bewildered they arrived in a country most had never seen, the houses and businesses they owned were all gone forever. Next came the Portuguese colony of Angola, civil war had already devastated this country, but many expats held on hoping for change, it never came, on the opposite side of Africa the old Portuguese colonial masters in Mozambique pulled out literally overnight, no warning, no hand over of power, they just left. The result of both these actions sent many tens of thousands of Portuguese and other ethnic groups fleeing both countries in panic. I could go on and quote the example of Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) thousand who called this country their home, with many being born there were suddenly dispossessed of their farms and property, again resulting in another mass exodus. My point here is that no country is immune to sudden change and what may be sweetness and light one day can quickly turn into a nightmare scenario, as for myself, well lets just say that I was one of the clever ones who saw it coming.

I concur that change can happen immediately. I'm also in agreement that I think the MB will take it slow until they are established, have their ducks in a row and then change will start. Tourism isn't going to be high on their list of priorities methinks other than in a few select areas for right now but in time I'm not sure the MB would tolerate 'any' differences to their beliefs especially once the mullahs arrive and again are established in positions of influence. All just takes time.

Am thinking the smarter expats will have left all options open. I think the expats who were wise enough to learn the language, have an ability to read the newspapers and understand what is going on 'on Egyptian terms' will be able to make wise choices. I think those expats who basically lived 'the life' there as they left it in the UK will be most disadvantaged. Somehow I don't think the MB will care to make exceptions for them and 'life' as they (expats) know it will evaporate in the Egyptian sun never to return. "Between a rock and a hard place" comes to mind for many. Sad when one really can't read the writing on the wall.

Thanks to both of you for posting such in depth thoughts! I think you've both summed it up very succinctly - and I find myself in total agreement. As for myself, I could never burn my bridges in this way. I prefer to keep a foothold on home soil.

Thanks to both of you for posting such in depth thoughts! I think you've both summed it up very succinctly - and I find myself in total agreement. As for myself, I could never burn my bridges in this way. I prefer to keep a foothold on home soil.

Thanks to both of you for posting such in depth thoughts! I think you've both summed it up very succinctly - and I find myself in total agreement. As for myself, I could never burn my bridges in this way. I prefer to keep a foothold on home soil.

I'll acknowledge it is difficult when times are and have been 'good' (as in Luxor 5 yrs ago) to even imagine that life could abruptly change dramatically due to circumstances beyond the individual's control. I have no doubt that many of the expats living in Egypt did the math, knew their own circumstances, planned and plotted out a 'dream' life to take them into their twilight years. Nobody can plan for any and all contingencies but I feel that 'at all times' one MUST maintain a 'situational awareness' of life and of what is happening around you. "Wishing" and "hoping" that life will maintain as always despite there being flashing neon lights in front of you waying "warning, warning, read the tea leaves" isn't prudent (to say the least).

I think that several decades ago or prior to the dawn of instant messaging and electronic communications it may have been more difficult to pick up the 'cues and clues' that life might be about to dramatically change. Today the messages are everywhere and while one can't let the media rule your life by the minute it is wise to put political, social, economic etc. issues into ones life scheme so as to not get caught unawares.

I do hope all the expats are actively planning now and developing contingency plans. I doubt they have to rush to the airports today but having an exit plan that can be executed quickly in response to future developments.

Horus wrote:Well I would reckon that regardless of what they may say publicly, quite a few expats will be very unnerved by this result. Maybe not immediately, but there will be many changes to come and some of those will affect them directly. In the short term I would say that the MB will try to be all things to all men and avoid rocking the boat too much so as not to upset the military or the people who did not vote for them and those that fear the rise of an Islamic state. Once they have settled in and maybe made a few improvements they will gain in confidence, overseas aid will have been given and everyone will start to think all is well with the world. There will be some improvement in tourism, but not enough as people wait to see the outcome, a distancing from Israel and more open support for the Palestinians will also raise tensions in the area. A few more radical types will be pressing for changes, so alcohol consumption and morals will come under more scrutiny thus further affecting tourism and with it the lifestyle of some expats both male and female. I can see this resulting in a more conservative Egypt with just a nod towards tourism with sun bathing and drinking only allowed in hotels and resorts such as the Red Sea area. If they do get re-elected and gain a larger share of the popular vote then they will gain still more control and then even the military will not dare oppose them as they and their supporters could make the country un-governable. The final scenario is the rise of the mullahs and once they are in the driving seat there is no turning back, think Iran.

Good post Horus

The MB were saying we welcome tourism all the time, well of course they have to say that and they will keep saying that, they will do it a clever way and just make it harder, like Horus says "sun bathing and drinking only allowed in hotels and resorts" maybe stopping alcohol altogether. Some businesses in Luxor who supported the MB/FJP stopped selling alcohol after the revolution, these places that were quite busy are now empty. Maybe they will cut visa's down to 1 month then you have to leave, No alcohol or same sex beaches, having to fully cover your skin etc.

When people start to worry about going to a foreign place, like: are they covered up properly, should I be walking alone, is it wrong for me to sit in a coffee shop, maybe I will get arrested for this or that etc... im sure they will find somewhere else to go.

Ex-pats living here will probably find things harder to stay here too, and those who work probably wont be able to no more.

It will be status quo for awhile BUT my sense is once the MB are established and have a firm foothold there ARE going to be DRAMATIC changes (just like Saudi) that will be put into place which will make it impossible for expats to continue to live there unless they totally comply with all requirements of Islamic law.

In our society we value diversity but I somehow think 'conformity' will be the theme of life there.

Go to L4u and read the latest post by the Wizard!

I would normally ask people not to cross over with topics from one forum to the other as this can cause confusion especially if the debate continues on both forums. However in this particular case and as the person concerned has only just made his situation clear and no answers have yet been posted, then I suppose that we are OK to discuss the general implications of such an event, but we should avoid using any references to that persons personal circumstances and only talk about it in general terms.

I will start by saying that it is extremely worrying when a person of 20 years standing, with a good income and doing nothing other than living their life peacefully should be denied a visa at the drop of a hat, then this should worry every expat in Egypt. Ultimately it mat be resolved and hopefully it will be, but we have recently seen examples of other expats having to leave very suddenly and although we have not heard any real explanations we can only assume it was done in a similar manner. No doubt that some excuse will be made and bureaucratic cock-ups blamed for the error, but either way the bottom line is that this person can be told after 20 years that they have 14 days to pack up and leave. If it can happen to him then it can happen to anyone, I for one would be extremely concerned for the future if I had chosen to live permanently in Egypt.

Guess I have to say - "Egypt is Egypt and not the UK" and even if one lives for umpteen years in another country unless one gets and meets the specific legal requirements to become a permanent resident or a citizen of that country unfortunately these type of matters can arise.

IF I was an expat living right now in Egypt I'd be seriously researching all of my options and preparing for any eventuality.

In this specific case lets hope that this has been just a paper shuffle or some sort of mis-read of the latest communication from Cairo BUT it is the proverbial "writing on the wall" that times, attitudes, policies, everything is pending change. Hard to predict which way the wind is going to blow.

I am sure that with this persons past history of living in Egypt it will all get sorted out OK, but it begs the question of what would happen if you did not know the ropes or the right people to contact. Fourteen days before you get deported would not give anyone time enough to act, especially if there were delays for any reason or deliberate stalling tactics by officials, its too late once the police come knocking on the door. Imagine anyone buying property or paying up front on long term rental when this could easily happen to you, what about your household goods or maybe vehicles? Would you be allowed back in again after leaving? if so, why make you leave in the first place? all very worrying and none of this bodes well for the future with this visa "Sword of Damocles" constantly hanging over every expat living in Egypt.

Horus wrote: Fourteen days before you get deported would not give anyone time enough to act, especially if there were delays for any reason or deliberate stalling tactics by officials, its too late once the police come knocking on the door.

And at least 2 days lost travelling to and from Cairo to sort it.

What if you have developed a relationship here, with another foreigner or an Egyptian (I'm not implying Wiz has, just talking generally)?

I'm not specifically referencing Wiz at all (talking generically) but at times of political change anything can and does happen up to and including such abhorrent acts as ethnic cleansing etc. IF people can turn on neighbours (think Rwanda) then there is going to be little consideration given for expats.

In this specific instance it doesn't seem timely to me that there is 'yet' in place a legal process for ridding Egypt of expats. The MB might work fast but NOT that fast. I'd think that the MB will never specifically target expats but instead will enact other laws, rules, regulations etc that will make life intolerable for them. It will be social pressure to conform to an "Islamic lifestyle" (whatever that might be post Arab spring) that will slowly push expats out of an ability to live their UK lifestyle in a foreign land.

This is just conjecture on my part but am thinking that times will change but it will take a little bit more time to effect the changes. On the other hand - maybe I'm wrong and this will be the wave of the future and as each visa comes up for renewal it will be denied forcing fast exits. If this happens who benefits? Am sure Egypt would love to take over all the land, material goods etc that expats would be forced to leave behind.

I'm wondering if the Brotherhood will veto Orfi relationships and then those that are in an Orfi marriage/business venture will be deported, thus leaving the Egyptian partner and/or his Egyptian family in full control of said business venture - or am I just being cynical here? Perhaps I should add joint property too to business ventures.

I don't know specifically how the MB will regard Orfi marriages in Egypt but, in general the very fundamentally inclined Islamists seem to have their own interpretations of gender relations and what is expected between husband and wife and children etc in ALL aspects of their life. I'd hazard that any new policies, proclamations, directives etc will point to very conservative relations and will put a patriarchial slant on society.

I would imagine that things like Orfi marriages and any other relationship that does not come under the Islamic religious code could well become a target for scrutiny in the future. It all depends upon just how far they go in that direction, but like I say anything and everything could change at the moment.