How serious is the Ukraine situation?

[Grandad]

We have often expressed a view that middle east problems should be resolved by the middle east countries. I believe that there is an exception when it comes to human suffering when I believe there is cause for some intervention such as air attacks and humanitarian aid. Things have to cross that 'Red Line' to warrant boots on the ground, at least most in the UK do not have a stomach for that after the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan.

But when we get to problems in Europe, then we must think very carefully about at what point we become involved. Eastern Ukraine is becoming more and more of a tinder box just waiting to explode IF other countries become involved. I am not quite clear why Putin is racheting up the tensions in the area but if he moves with force into Ukraine we cannot stand back and let it happen. As Jose Manuel Barroso European Commission President said yesterday, 'the crisis in Ukraine is nearing a point of no return', and the Ukrainian President added saying, 'today Ukraine tomorrow Europe'. It is serious and if the worst happens in Ukraine and the IS stamp all over Iraq, Syria and beyond then the future looks extremely dire.

I sometimes think that I personally too often see the worst possibilities when tensions are raised between countries but I seriously think this situation could boil over to war in Europe. The question is, 'how do you stop Putin without the situation escalating to war into all out war in Europe. He is SO arrogant and has shown that he can push his boundaries without any real resistance from other countries. I am sure he just laughs at sanctions which so far have not hurt him in real terms.

He is a powerful and dangerous man and I fear that there are no other heads of state capable of confronting him face to face. And when I hear David Camerons limp statements about the situation, I cringe. If ever there was a PM looking less like a statesman, he is it. I am very concerned for the coming year and the last thing I would want is for my grandsons to be conscripted from their current optimistic futures.....

What do you guys think???

[Horus]

There is a way but it will be painfull, he is well aware that we will not go head to head with him militarily and he banks upon that. He knows as well as we do that it would lead to war with Russia and he is playing brinksmanship and securing the Ukraine as a Russian satelite state once more, he will never accept it being part of the West and being a member of Nato as this may mean weapons aimed at them located on Ukrainian soil. So he will risk almost anything to keep it within the Soviet sphere of influence, but he does have an Achiles heel and that is trade with the rest of the world or getting into another arms race with America. At the moment the Russian oil supports his military ambitions so he is not as worried as he would have been some years ago, but if the rest of Europe imposed swingeing sanctions on Russia he would have to back of someway, but it needs to be very severe sanctions and they would also hurt us as well and he knows that. However if America made it's intentions clear to start up another arms race using 'Star Wars' type technology thus forcing them into an expensive arms program whilst at the same time ALL of Europe were to stop buying gas and oil or at least start to diversify away from reliance upon Russian oil, if the French withheld the aircraft carriers, if UK cut off all financial dealings and froze Russian assets and accounts, everyone imposed a travel ban on ALL Russian flights, if a total ban on foodstuffs and technology were to be implimented then we may just get his attention, or to be more precise the attention of the Russian populace who are now more informed and aware of what is going on and less likely to tollerate such disruption.

[LovelyLadyLux]

I think a few things .......

First let me say I always thought peace was the way. If we're nice you'll be nice notion - however - of late I've come more to more to think that there are nefarious evil persons out there who will jump at any chance to control and conquer and they are an extremely real threat (that I have been relatively naïve about).

I always thought the USA was overboard in terms of being militaristic and giving the impression of being ready to blow the place to smithereens at the drop of a hat - BUT - lately I've really wondered if their threat of doing that kept more world order meaning peace for the rest of us?

We've definitely seen with an extremely weak world leader (Pres Obama) that this has opened the window for the rest of the world to rise up and take arms - BUT - maybe they would have anyway (??? - am not sure)

Does it take force and threat to ensure peace?

As I said I have more questions than answers but I can't help but question IS Putin taking the opportunity to move now because he knows beyond a shadow of a doubt the USA will do nothing to stop him? And as he takes Ukraine if there is no to minimal resistance (meaning the rest of the world (UK/USA) doesn't rise up against him) will he move to further conquests?

Lately many of my own personal theories re: peace, no wars, no boots on the ground to the loss of young life etc are really being questioned in my own mind. I definitely do not want to see the grandkids grow up in a world under constant threat from Russia, ISIS however I do not believe we can talk our way out of threat from them (particularly ISIS - they're CRAZY in every sense of the word).

I often joke and disparage the PC police. Part of me recognizes the importance of NOT slamming, belittling, hurting etc a marginalized or ethnic group however lately another strong part of me, when I really start to seriously think about all the implications of being PC in the extreme, thinks that allowing the PC'ers to rise to the point of where they are now has been very wrong. Right now we're in a position of being so PC that we can't say or even give the slightest whisper of a comment without fear of being labelled racist which is a brush so abhorrent none of us wants this. I'm thinking this alone has done us, as a society, one of the greatest disservices in the world as it has effectively rendered us unable to verbalize against wrongs done to us, allowed Christianity to be marginalized & attacked and kept us silent with regard to threats against us.

Our silence has allowed others to rise and this "others to rise" is what I am bothered about as I do not want to have to think in terms of others! I want to think in terms of a global us. I want to think about US as being a collective of mixed values and cultures all getting along harmoniously but I am not sure others are thinking as kindly towards me as I am of them.

More and more I am thinking we do need to war to keep peace and order. Very sad commentary on us.

[Grandad]

So, would it be best to let Putin annexe Ukraine as he did with the Crimea?

The problem is that in the eyes of much of the world, the west sits on its hands and does nothing, or almost nothing, to become involved. The rebels in Syria, Iraq, Palestine all proceed with impunity in the knowledge that the west is most unlikely to intervene.

Putin could well be taking the same view and I am sure his intention is to take Ukraine under Russian control. But if he does, what then? Other states on Russia's boundary are getting anxious that they could be next. Will Europe and the US continue to let this happen?

I am still not convinced that sanctions will work. Russians should study their recent history. If they close their borders and become introverted bent only on land grabbing, the future for them would be very bleak.

[Grandad]

Perhaps I am pushing the Devils Advocate stance a bit too far...I would hope so. Apparently there has been an exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia so perhaps there is a cooling of the Russian approach....they sill have masses of tanks and munitions on Ukraines border though.

[Grandad]

Perhaps I am pushing the Devils Advocate stance a bit too far...I would hope so. Apparently there has been an exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia so perhaps there is a cooling of the Russian approach....they sill have masses of tanks and munitions on Ukraines border though.

[Grandad]

Perhaps I am pushing the Devils Advocate stance a bit too far...I would hope so. Apparently there has been an exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia so perhaps there is a cooling of the Russian approach....they still have masses of tanks and munitions on Ukraines border though.

[Horus]

I do not think that Russia will try to expand further than it's old Soviet Union borders, any more and it knows it will invite NATO intervention. Russia has always been paranoid about it's borders and with the break up of the Soviet Union Russia became more exposed with no buffer states between it and the West, Putin is trying to redress that. Do we interveen? well on a personal point I could not care less for the Ukraine as they are just as bad as their former masters, as are most of the former satelite states of Russia, one only has to go back to WW2 and ask what nationality were all the volunteer guards manning the Natzi extermination camps for an answer, hence my could not care less attitude towards any of these ex Soviet countries. My own view is that once he has taken 'the old empire' back again he will be happy, however we as the West should not allow him to go unpunished for his actions and hurt him in other ways than military confrontation. One American president Theodore Roosevelt ’s foreign policy was : "speak softly and carry a big stick" and that is what we should be doing, kick them out of the G8 for a start and any other global organisation and of course take away the world cup and any other prestige events and make them pariahs in the world, hurting Russia pride will do more good than anything else.

[LovelyLadyLux]

I honestly do not know Russia's history well enough to really give a comprehensive answer on what should happen or what could happen between Russia and the Ukraine. Part of me thinks that Putin is extremely proud of his Russia plus he is opportunistic and so if he can strike, so to speak, with no repercussions then he'll go for it and right now IMO he can be pretty darn confident nobody else in the world is going to do anything to stop him from doing anything. I think Putin feels confident he can push things as far as he cares to push them right now and can also test out any waters he wants to. Once so tested he'll decide then what moves he wants to make.

I know this is a rather waffly answer but in my own mind I'm not totally clear what could happen with Russia. I can see various scenerios.

What I do know is that if pushed Russia could deny access to the Space Station - no more (ahem) FREE rides. Not too sure what impact this would have on communications.

[rastrata]

Hi, guys, need to say. I'm russian. And i see this situation from another side. Every day i see thousands of people suffering. I see american military in Ukraine. And nobody takes care about ukranian people. For last three months Russia is fulfilled with people whose houses are destroyed, no work, no hospitals, no chance to stay alive. Do you really think it makes us happier? Whar do you want from Putin if Ukranian president can't reach peace with his own nation. Why do you blame Russia? So funny!!! You are thinking of new sanctions for Russia! Think about people. Use your brains in proper way. One more thought: if russia really needed ukraine, don't doubt, it would be already a part of russia. The real truth is here on the boarder. Don't trust your tv, welcome and watch the reality