No emergency law in Egypt, for now

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No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by DJKeefy »

President Mohamed Morsi said that if he has to “impose exceptional measures to restore domestic order” he will do so, emphasising that he “is afraid” he might have to.

Morsi’s statement came on Sunday as he gave a speech in the opening session of a conference devoted to women's rights and freedoms at the presidential palace in Cairo, and was widely understood by the opposition as a direct threat that a crackdown on his opponents is on the way.

A few hours after the president’s speech, in which he also accused the media of inciting violence, Media Production City (MPC) in Sixth October City on Sunday was besieged by Islamist protesters who came to condemn what they perceived as anti-Islamist bias in the Egyptian private media.

A number of television stars and opposition figures were both verbally and physically attacked at the gates of the media complex.

The sit-in in Sixth October gave more reasons for Morsi’s opponents to believe that his speech was a green light to his supporters and that his words were not only threats but rather a sign that more “exceptional measures” are about to be imposed.

“What we are witnessing now reminds me of what happened in September 1981 under [former president] Sadat”, human rights activist Gamal Eid told Ahram Online, comparing Morsi’s possible crackdown to the massive police strike that Sadat ordered against the Egyptian opposition and in which more than 1,500 political figures from all parts of the political spectrum were put in prison.

“At that time too President Sadat said that he was doing this for the good of the nation but the result was his assassination, a lesson that Morsi does not seem to have learnt,” Eid added.

Morsi warned in his speech about those trying to “sabotage" the course of the January 25 revolution and Egypt's democratic transition and cause chaos. He also warned the political opposition against trying to give a political cover to violence.

The next day, the prosecutor-general summoned five well-known activists after Brotherhood lawyer Abdel-Moneim Abdel-Maqsoud filed a complaint against 169 individuals – including party heads, politicians and "thugs" – whom he accused of inciting the violence that took place on Friday outside the Brotherhood headquarters. The clashes between supporters and opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood on Friday left at least 200 people injured.

Under Mubarak, Egypt's emergency law was repeatedly extended every three years, throughout the course of his 30-year rule. Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces finally lifted the emergency law on 31 May 2012.

Under the state of emergency, police had the right to detain individuals without charge. An emergency law was often used against members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists during the Mubarak era.

But will the president really impose a state of emergency of any kind in Egypt in the coming days or weeks? Morsi’s aides clearly stated more than once over the past few days that he will not.

Ayman Ali, the president’s advisor, said on Monday that Morsi’s speech was misinterpreted and did not include any exceptional measures. In a phone interview with CBC television channel, Ali said that he does not know nor has he heard of any decisions to arrest opposition figures or to shut down television stations.

“The president’s statements were understood by some as an announcement that the state is regaining its authority and will not allow any illegal actions, and by others as exceptional measures that would restrain freedoms.”

Ali emphasised that the president does not intend to restrict any freedoms or rights.

For many political analysts, however, there is a difference between the fact that Morsi will not impose a state of emergency and the fact that he couldn’t.

“We all can smell September 1981 in the air but the thing is: this is not 1981,” political analyst Hazem Monir told Ahram Online.

Monir expect Morsi’s administration to take a number of steps that it thinks would help to control the anger in the street and bring some stability to the country at least until the parliamentary elections are held.

“Morsi cannot afford to take sweeping measures through which he would be able to crack down on his opponents in one shot,” Monir said.

“Neither the state apparatus nor the international community nor the Egyptian street is as it was in 1981,” explains Monir, “and for an administration that is keeping an eye on the IMF loan, any attempt to impose an emergency law will stifle the flow of capital to Egypt and will discourage international donors from trying to bail Egypt out.”

Last February, in response to a recent wave of deadly clashes throughout the country, President Mohamed Morsi imposed a 30-day state of emergency – including daily curfews – in the canal cities of Suez, Ismailia and Port Said. Both the state of emergency and the curfews were intentionally broken as an act of protest by residents of the cities.

On Monday, Morsi and the Minister of Defence General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi had a closed meeting that lasted for about an hour. News reports later in the day stated that the president asked his minister of defence if he approved of imposing exceptional measures, an inquiry that was met with much reservation.

A few hours later El-Sisi, in a meeting with military leaders, said that the army stands at an equal distance from all political factions, stressing that “the economic, social and security challenges that Egypt faces require that all forces of society unite and work together to overcome the current crisis.”

“The army has learnt their lesson,” said Monir, commenting on the meeting and the news leaks that appeared thereafter.

“It will not put itself as a party in the current political tug of war and I really doubt that the president will ask the army to do so.”

Monir does not believe that the army is willing to play the role it played in Suez Canal cities in February on a wider national scale, even though they managed to defuse an escalating crisis.

General Mohamed Ali Bilal, however, thinks that the army should intervene to put an end to what he described as “the clear inefficiency of the current administration.” The strategic analyst went further to describe the methods used by the presidency towards its opponents as “methods similar to those that were adopted by the old regime.”

“Both the presidency and the political leaders do not care about the country and are serving very narrow political interests,” Bilal said.

“The army is too hesitant at a time when it should take the initiative and propose a way out to the presidency and advise it not to go further in its current policies.”

Bilal thinks that El-Sisi should call for a national dialogue and invite representatives of all colours of the political spectrum, including the presidency.

In December 2012 the army chief called for a dialogue meeting between different political groups and the presidency in an attempt to contain a crisis that erupted after a controversial constitutional declaration was issued by the president. The meeting was put on hold the next day as both the president and the Freedom and Justice Party from which he hails seemed to have reservations about the army’s call.

“We don’t have the luxury to wait for diplomatic approaches that keep everyone happy,” said Bilal.

“Any other attempt to control the current crisis will only make things worse.”

However, Monir does not think that President Morsi is willing to engage in a serious dialogue with the opposition that apparently has limited influence in the street.

“Some security measures would be taken in the coming days in an attempt to buy time into the elections, but all these pain killers will not work; even if they do now, the future will see more chronic pains that will need more than a blazing speech to fix.”

Source: http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/67801.aspx


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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

Long article and I admit I didn't read it all however if Morsi starts to really crack down I believe it is going to cause more civil unrest. I am not confident that he (Morsi) has the political, personal, pragmatic, network support to lead Egypt, a country in crisis though these tough times to a positive outcome. His Syrian counterpart had no problem attacking his own people with military might and I don't think Morsi will hesitate (if pushed)to do this either and he will do this to try and maintain order as per definition(s) of the MB.
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by Horus »

Phrases such as "Better the devil you know" and "What goes around, comes around" spring to mind here. So what exactly has changed since this much hyped revolution? the country is in a worse state than before, it is being run by another dictator who two years on has not held elections and now we read this new threat to freedom. So Egypt still has a dictator in power, but the country is slowly sinking into the sunset economically and is only propped up by foreigners giving it handouts, meanwhile the people suffer, hence in my opinion it was "Better the devil you know" as at least under his regime the country was stable and working. It is often said that you should be careful what you wish for and Egypt is a good example of that, they wished for democracy without knowing what it really meant and finished up with something worse, another dictatorship with only a small, but active core of supporters who have no intentions of allowing any form of change that decreases their own ability to control the rheins of power.
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

This entire example of how Egypt ousted Mubarak is a PRIME example too of the power of social networking and how social networking can go crazy. Crazy in that you can organize an event but you have no control over the outcome of what happens.

I might be wrong but it is my impression (and I think supported by some newscasters) that the bulk of the organization of the protests to oust Mubarak were done via social media. This is also a prime example of the power of networking but also exemplifies that when we talk 'on computer' we really don't know exactly WHO we are talking to. Am sure this would be seconded by all the women and men wh met potential partners online who then robbed them blind. How many brides arrived from Russia with an in place agenda? How many Egyptians were online really planning to put a democratic process in place? Were the protestors really networking and planning with like minded Egyptians who wanted democracy or were they actually talking to a considerable number of memeber of the MB?

There wasn't much law and order under Mubarak but the country was gimping along as a viable tourist desination and, at least, food was on the table. Not implying I think this was optimal living but I'm thinking better than what is there now. The revolution comes along front loaded with all the anger and angst built up over the years and then just ended with no follow through. It was like there was almost a trust in God that now that the devil (Mubarak) was gone life would be better. Better wasn't really defined or quantified or fought for - it was all just left up to the powers that be that life in Egypt was going to equal life in the UK/USA/EU/OZ etc with no planning, plotting, strategizing, sacrificing, hard work and on and on.

I can almost see another Syria happening if there are efforts to oust Morsey/MB. The toe hold is there, there is an ardent want for Islam or life under the MB to be the way of life. Going to be much harder to get this regieme changed and law and order can deteriorate quickly methinks into civil war. Hope it doesn't but I can see Egypt posed to deteriorate to Syria.
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by Grandad »

On the way back to the airport yesterday we passed a queue nearly a kilometre long of assorted vehicles, the drivers of which were praying that they would reach the front before the stock ran out.
We never had these problems when Mubarak was in power, said our driver. Most people wish he was still president. We all hate Morsi because he is weak and ineffectual.
I think those words sum up the views of all that we met on our visit. Egypt has lived under a Dictator for so many years and accepting all the corruption and suppression that comes with a dictatorship, there was always fuel at the pumps, there were far fewer power cuts, and a much more healthy tourist industry meant that that essential industry for Egypt was doing very well for all employed in it.
I don't think Egypt will become another Syria, what they need is a strong leader, and quick.
:gg:
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

When a house of cards fall it usually ALL falls starting with the weakest card at the bottom. I'm not sure that Egypt's cards were ever that strong and now that they're falling it will only take a slight breeze to put the entire structure into a complete free fall. Enough of an analogy of cards + Egypt BUT I do not think Morsi is really effective. He isn't a strong leader who had grabbed power and who is leading effectively. I see him as a Dictator wannabe but without the charisma, personal strength, smarts and all wot it takes to make a leader an effective leader.

I think Morsi has too many conflicting interests he is trying to appease and you can't have your cake and eat it too. The MB are a force with an agenda. You can't walk with them and stray from the path. Morsi isn't strong enough, skilled enough, effective enough to seize Egypt and forge his own path to create a democratic country. He is trying to sort of meander down a path that isn't going to end well for the people of Egypt. What they need to do is up to them. They had high aspirations and then just left it to (ahem) God's will and now they're getting the results of their spring. Long cold winter ahead.

Bothers me incredibly that the children, women and innocents will suffer along the way and have no real ability to set their own life path.

On another note Grandad - hope you and Mrs. Grandad had a great trip. Wanting to get a synopsis + photos of your holiday! :) :) :)
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by Grandad »

LLL said "They had high aspirations and then just left it to (ahem) God's will and now they're getting the results of their spring. Long cold winter ahead."

To be honest LLL, I don't believe that 'They' (meaning all) had those high aspirations. I believe it was a relatively small minority using (as you have said) social media to drum up the fanatic support that we saw in January 2011. They certainly didn't represent the majority, many of whom were wise enough to see what the outcome might be. I have always doubted that Egypt can have democratic government anything like that which we know in 'first world' countries.

If they can end up with some sort of democracy it will be one that suits their culture and may be far removed from what we know as democracy.

PS. We had a great time in Luxor but I will tell you about it when I have had an opportunity to sort out some pictures to show you to support a dialogue about the trip.
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

Agree that an Egyptian democracy might be far removed from our own version of democracy. Hopefully they will retain what they already have.

When I said they left it to God's will I was being cryptic in that, to me, all the efforts seemed very front loaded. LOTS of planning went into the Arab Spring and revolution but after it happened there didn't seem to be the same level of planning re: what do we do now? Kinda like the dog that chases his tail. When he finally catches it he isn't too sure what he does with it.

BUT - the above being said I think culturally there is a theme of "inshallah" that passes through that society. They're definitely not aggressive about advancing their country if you compare them to Asian nations. They are more willing to accept what is handed down to them. They suffered mightily for years under Mubarak before finally getting the Oomph together to oust him.

I do ponder why some peoples and groups are so willing to accept what is handed to them while other societies are much more together in advancing the collective interest.

Looking forward to see all the photos - 50 or so should be adequate ;) and hearing about the travel
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by Grandad »

LovelyLadyLux wrote:Looking forward to see all the photos - 50 or so should be adequate ;) and hearing about the travel
:))) :)))

I don't think I have that much space available in my album.........but I will sort some in the next day or so. Suffice to say we had a most enjoyable 10 days.

PS. I have a connection problem with my PC and am having to use the tablet so until I sort that, no pics and very few comments on here. :(
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by Ruby Slippers »

Dear Grandad, I am sitting here with my leg propped up; in considerable discomfort; after having an infected cyst removed yesterday - so I NEED your trip report and photos to cheer me up! There! Will that do? :lol: Glad you both had a good time! :up
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Re: No emergency law in Egypt, for now

Post by LovelyLadyLux »

@ Grandad - ok - 40 or so will suffice :mrgreen:

@ RS - ewwwwww doesn't sound good. Speedy healing!
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